Just when I thought I had heard all the bad news possible about hotels, I heard this from Mark Lomanno, President of Smith Travel Research, and THE most knowledgeable person in the industry about rate and occupancy.  For inflation adjusted ADR to reach 2007 levels, it could take the same amount of time it took Ulysses to get back home from Troy to Ithaca.  (OK- Mark actually just said 10 years).

His very rational calculations include the continuing supply increase problem, the lowest number of rooms going out of use in 20 years, the assumption RevPAR doesn’t turn positive until late next year, a normal dose of inflation, and so forth.

Oh and then there is occupancy. He projects year end to be 55.5%. Last time we had that low was in the 40s. That’s 1940s.

And while we are alluding to the classics, I will personally give $100 to any Diogenes who can find an honest appraiser who will use the 10 year ADR projection.