and the end is 26 months from now. The Fed and most lenders are driving Commercial Real Estate into a box canyon… you know the one with three tall sides and no way out…used in the old west to drive game into and …kill…easily. And hotel loans are the lead cows. Sounds like the perfect scenario for our dear friends the vulture funds. Our canyon has three sides:
the massive Maturity Wall looming in 2012
the towering $850 Billion Equity Gap
the Race between Libor and RevPar which RevPar will loose
The Maturity Wall is the worst – from now until 2012 there are $170 Billion in just CMBS maturities. Those maturities will hit at the same time hundreds of Billions of corporate bond debt is coming due. Hordes of real estate and corporate borrowers will be gathered around a limited watering hole of fresh capital and there won’t be enough to go around.
And our industry’ extend and pretend is driving all the already weakened loans towards that end.
The Equity Gap is the shortfall between the $2.8 Trillion (you know it’s sort of fun to type $Trillion) in commercial real estate loans originated between ‘05 and ‘08 which if refinanced today would be worth $2.0 Trillion. So $850 Billion will need to come from write downs and equity. Hotel loans are about 10% of this say $280 Billion with say an $85 Billion shortfall. Pundits estimate there is about $12 Billion fresh hotel equity raised to help with the butchering. So that leaves about $73 Billion in loan losses. For comparison the TOTAL market value of all hotel REITS and hotel public companies is $33 Billion. Did that sink in? Yes the loss is twice as much as the total value of all hotel REITS and public companies. This will stink.
The Race between LIBOR and RevPar will start to sink most floating loans as soon as the economy starts to recover. When each of the past recoveries has taken hold Libor increases around 300-400 basis points in twelve months. So today’s fairy land of 2% hotel loans (175 over Libor at 0.24 today) will evaporate and payment rates will increase by 150-300%. Some of these loans won’t even make it to the end of the canyon.
So what do we do? Collectively we as a nation could create another RTC (and for those originators I have talked to who didn’t know what the RTC was please call me). Likelihood of that happening in today’s put it off til the next election political environment is shall we say slim. Smart money will wait at the end of the canyon and have a historic feast of cheap hotel asset buys. Most of us will just keep our heads down and try to do the best we can as owners holding on to our hotels or as lenders working out loans. But all of us taxpayers as the lender of last resort will in the end pick up the bill. And a big bill it will be.
Sometimes we wonder at our firm if the numbers are understated. Yes, I said understated. The clients we are working with on a workout and restructure of debt across all asset classes is staggering.
Off course leading the way is hospitality. We just had a client engage us today for a Hampton Inn. The loan amount and a recent appraisal that bank ordered put the LTV at 92%!!!
A lot of people are going to get crushed starting in 2010…
“everything is under control” may have other motivations…like “I want to keep my job so i am saying what i am told to say…” or worse yet they may not even be aware of the depth of the problem….remember these are the institutions that made the loans…
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Great points…I would note that as someone who really doesn’t comment to blogs much (in fact, this may be my first post), I don’t think the term “lurker” is very flattering to a non-posting reader. It’s not your fault really , but perhaps the blogosphere could come up with a better, non-creepy name for the 90% of us that enjoy just reading the posts.
With all the doggone snow we have gotten recently I am stuck inside , fortunately there is the internet, thanks for giving me something to do.
“By 2020, the agency estimates debt held by the public would reach $20.3 trillion, or 90% of GDP.” We are on an unsustainable path. It will never get there. Public debt of the United States: ~$8 trillion – Federal public debt ~$4.5 trillion – Intergovernmental Holdings ~$2 trillion – State and local governments. Total = ~$14.5 trillion We are already over 100% GDP.
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For those who care about booms and busts, and whether they are inevitable or preventable — which should be all of us — I suggest reading Mason Gaffney’s “The Great Crash of 2008″ and “How to Thaw Credit, Now and Forever.” He points out that Homer Hoyt’s “100 Years of Land Values in Chicago,” published in 1933, tracked the five cycles that had occurred during that interval, and found 20 elements which virtually always appeared; Gaffney has added a few more. He shows the algebra, which brings in expected land rent (a), the interest rate (i), the expected growth in land rent (g), and derives the value of land, (V). If investors expect “g” to rise, they’ll pay high prices for land. For V to level off, “g” must fall to zero, which causes V to fall. “There cannot be a ‘permanent high plateau’ of land or stock prices, if “high” means based on high values of “g”. ” Buildings do not appreciate. Let me repeat that. Buildings do not appreciate. They depreciate, no matter what nonsense we permit our tax assessors to put online. What rises in value is land. (And the assessors typically undervalue it by large margins. Buyers do not, and neither do sellers.) Speculators do not speculate on buildings. They speculate on locations.
I like the first point you made there, but I am not sure I could reasonably apply that in a productive way.
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I installed my own CCTV System and was quite pleased with the results, until one day i got robbed. The system i installed caught the robbery on tape, but the problem was the picture was not good enough to identify the robbers. It cost me over $6000 in losses. More than i would have paid for a professionally installed Security Camera System. Finally i decided to go pro and call in the Big BoSS as he calls himself. I called CCTV Boss. Who really gave a crap about my situation and were willing to listen and help. They spent a considerable amount of time on the phone trying to understand the situation and make suggestions. I ended up with a 12 camera security system from them. They even did some test captures and showed me the picture quality offline to put me at ease.
It is useful to try everything in practice anyway and I like that here it’s always possible to find something new.