The Bottom is Dropping out of the Bottom

Shhhh…quiet ….don’t tell anyone….but….
A most important measurement of how hotels may recover just came out to silent acclamation. No one wants to talk about it. Stop reading if you are faint of heart.

The plunge in RevPar started in October of ’08 after the Lehman melt down. Since then its been one really bad week after another as we compared the current week with the week a year before. So first week of November ’08 looked really bad because it was compared to November of ’07 (at the peak of the market)- it was down 17.2%. That trend continued for 52 weeks.

But we were all hoping that the first week of November ’09 , since it compares with an already down ’08 week of 17.2% would show serious improvement and most of us hoped it would be down only 0% to 5%.

And the envelope please…. the first week of November ’09 revpar compared to the same week in ’08 is down….another….frightening….11.8%.

So what does this mean for a particular hotel? Owners as well as employees are suffering and this news will only make it worse. Christmas has been put off anoter year.

Many owners have done everything they can to keep their hotels from foreclosure- delaying maintenance, holding off on required PIPs from franchisors, cutting sales staff, and not paying themselves fees. Employees who still have their jobs have been working harder and often longer with no raises since 2007- and in properties that are increasingly capital starved.

But let’s remember this IS the hospitality business and we have a time honored job- take care of our guests. If we do this we will feel better every day (sort of ancient wisdom here) and the recovery will at least seem to arrive sooner.

 

 

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