http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com Steve Van's thoughts on defaults Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:23:13 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Shhhh…quiet ….don’t tell anyone….but…. A most important measurement of how hotels may recover just came out to silent acclamation. No one wants to talk about it. Stop reading if you are faint of heart. The plunge in RevPar started in October of ’08 after the Lehman melt down. Since then its been ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/11/18/the-bottom-is-dropping-out-of-the-bottom/ and the end is 26 months from now. The Fed and most lenders are driving Commercial Real Estate into a box canyon... you know the one with three tall sides and no way out...used in the old west to drive game into and ...kill...easily. And hotel loans are the lead ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/11/13/extend-and-pretend-will-be-bad-in-the-end/ Just when I thought I had heard all the bad news possible about hotels, I heard this from Mark Lomanno, President of Smith Travel Research, and THE most knowledgeable person in the industry about rate and occupancy.  For inflation adjusted ADR to reach 2007 levels, it could take the same ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/10/06/ulysses-average-daily-rate-and-diogenes/ I am sorry to report that Special Servicing just went above $50B ($50,000,000,000).  I know I will be persecuted by my hotel industry friends for "bearing bad tidings", "declaring the sky is falling" and "spreading panic” by means of this hoteldefaultblog you are reading.  (No one claims I am not ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/09/23/why-bad-news-is-good/ Well its only tangentially related to the hotel business, but for you overindulging grandparents or parents hoping to escape the stress of today’s hotel defaults…the Wizarding World of Harry Potter will open this Spring in Orlando at Universal Studios.  I highly recommend it.  When I watch Harry Potter with my ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/09/22/finally-some-good-news/ Here are some recent comments I have heard on the state of hotel defaults (and to protect the innocent and my relationships I won’t do attributions).   “Hotel owners are in a mass grave that hasn’t been discovered yet” (from a major hotel owner speaking, I guess, from the grave).   “What I, as ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/08/31/pundits-pithy-pontifications/ Read it today in the Wall Street Journal- top paragraph left hand side… “IF THE ECONOMY RECOVERS AS ANTICIPATED AND BERNANKE MOVES TO RAISE THE INTEREST RATES…”  If that happens then all the nightmares about floating rate hotel loans will come true.  Hotel loan recovery is a race that will ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/08/26/the-economic-race-hotels-will-lose/ Always one to do my own market research and consistently willing to share my findings with others for the common good, I have discovered a cure for all the headaches and ills that Special Servicers, Asset Managers and other workout artists are facing from hotel defaults on a daily basis. ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/08/25/miraculous-cure-for-hotel-defaults/   Here’s the hotel equivalent of E=MC². Hotel value = NOI. Hotel NOI has gone down 39.1%. How much have hotel values gone down? Answer: At least 39%, but actually could be worse since hotel values in another life (2007) were based on lower cap rates and bloated financing.   My personal thanks to ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/08/17/albert-einstein-and-hotel-defaults/ Today the last true defender of optimistic hotel forecasts threw in the towel and declared that year end 2009 hotel income will be 74% worse than forecasted in April.  Mark Lomanno, whom I greatly admire, is President of STR and has been the most sanguine of hotel forecasters.  In April, ... http://www.hoteldefaultblog.com/2009/07/08/the-sky-is-really-falling/